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Bull or Bear Market?

To BE or NOT to BE, that is the question; however, the rest of the question is about the stock market, Should one be IN the stock market or OUT. If the answer is IN, then which way is it going, up or down. If down then let’s SHORT some stock, and if UP, let’s go LONG, but whatever we do, we must PLAY if we’re going to WIN. Of so that’s what the stock brokers will tell you. 

 

Obama surprised the world with a visit to Baghdad and he surprised many Americans by declaring America is NOT a Christian nation. Hmmm.

 

But, back to the markets. It appears to me that we’re seeing a dead-cat bounce which is typical after such a major downturn as we’ve seen in the past six months. Some call it a secondary (upward) correction of a bear market. How far that will go is anyone’s guess, but it does appear that the upward momentum has stopped if but temporarily. A bear market rally is supposed to convince the majority that a new bull market has started.

 

And many are taking the bait!

 

And then the rally will continue until a large number of investors are back on board, and then the bear will kill them as it fades away, leaving the new optimists high and dry and with losses. Last one in loses. 

 

Markets tend to thwart the majority and they tend to kill the small investor who doesn’t have a clue as to what he or she is doing. But, now that one can trade without a broker, it’s so much easier to lose money. If markets existed to make money for the majority, then most market participants would be millionaires, and you know that’s not happening.

 

Richard Russell wrote yesterday, “Markets can be compared with gambling at Las Vegas. When you gamble at Vegas, you are bucking the house odds. Which is why if you play long enough at Vegas, you will always lose your money. Vegas is stacked that way. Las Vegas is constructed to separate players from their money. The stock market is a bit classier. When you buy stocks, you are at least buying something. It feels good to say, “I bought 500 shares of Johnson & Johnson.”

 

My answer to the title question is that it’s a BEAR market!

About the Author

As a spiritual-futurist, I have a BA degree majoring in history. One cannot know the future without knowing the past which holds clues to what is on the horizon. The world is in such a rapid expansion of knowledge that we are close to entering a tipping point that will forever change earth as we know it.

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